Meat Market Update September 2025

                                            

Meat Market Update - September 2025

Beef - Strong demand, exports growing

With lowered US slaughter volumes and strong US retail beef demand, global prices for beef have soared. 90CL beef trim exports to the US has reached record levels, and with US beef exports to China declining, Australian beef exports have been growing, leading to increased prices in Australian markets. As a result, beef trim supply is in exceptional demand, which is keeping beef prices high and has been tightening the supply of secondary cuts.

Cattle prices have continued to rise steadily since June and is likely to continue to rise into the warmer months, with weekly national slaughter numbers remaining at 150,000. Winter cuts such as beef cheeks and briskets have seen strong seasonal demand, with interest likely to shift towards function cuts as the weather warms, particularly for eye fillets. The supply of beef is running at full capacity, meaning that there is unlikely to be a surge of extra beef coming to the market in the short term, keeping prices high and steady.

We can expect some local imbalances in cattle availability, as dry conditions in Victoria and South Australia has reduced capacity and pushed southern processors to source stock from further north. For this reason, grass-fed programs and cattle from the southern regions will be limited until conditions improve and locally available beef from southern regions will have limited availability.

 

Pork – Stable supply, export growth putting upward pressure on pricing

Pork supply has remained stable, with pork bellies in particular in strong demand. As drought continues in Southern Australia, especially Victoria, feed and grain prices have increased. Domestic production is currently flat, but a strong export growth into Southeast Asia, combined with higher input costs, has created upward pressure on pricing.

 

Lamb – Low availability has eased demand, relief in supply expected early 2026

Since mid-2025, lamb supply has remained tight, in part due to ongoing drought conditions in southern Australia and also due to ongoing herd liquidation. This low supply and availability has pushed up prices, and new seasons of lamb supply are running 6-8 weeks behind schedule, leading some processors to scale back production until supply improves. Exports remain steady, with growth showcased in premium markets in North America, Asia and Europe. While domestically demand has eased due to the low availability of lamb, with new spring lambs on the way, we may see some supply relief, but not until early 2026.

 

Chicken – Hindquarters cuts outpace forequarter cuts

Chicken demand remains consistent, despite some labour shortages at processing plants, creating some challenges there. The demand for hindquarter cuts, such as thighs, drumsticks and Marylands, continues to outpace the demand for forequarter cuts, such as breasts and wings. Producers will need to carefully balance production and pricing and keep an eye on how this dynamic progresses into the future. Overall, the demand for chicken continues to grow, as many chefs see chicken as a cost-effective, versatile alternative to other proteins.